Question 1

What is Monte Carlo simulation?

Accepted Answer

Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling based on your historical trading data to simulate thousands of possible future scenarios, helping evaluate the risk and return distribution of your strategy.

Question 2

How do I interpret Monte Carlo results?

Accepted Answer

Focus on the median return, maximum drawdown distribution, and ruin probability. If most simulations are positive with low ruin rate, your strategy shows robustness.

Question 3

How many trades do I need for Monte Carlo simulation?

Accepted Answer

At least 50 historical trades are recommended for reliable results. Fewer than 30 trades may lead to sampling bias and unreliable projections of strategy performance.

Question 4

How is Monte Carlo simulation different from backtesting?

Accepted Answer

Backtesting replays your strategy in historical order, producing one result set. Monte Carlo randomly shuffles trade order across thousands of scenarios, providing a fuller picture of strategy performance under varying luck conditions and worst-case scenarios.

Question 5

What is ruin probability?

Accepted Answer

Ruin probability is the percentage of Monte Carlo simulations where your account balance drops to zero. A ruin probability below 5% is generally considered acceptable for live trading.

Simulasi Monte Carlo

Parameter Simulasi